ECMWF-ENS(eng) - Revision history

Admin at 15:56, 24 November 2020

2020-11-24T15:56:39Z

Admin at 15:53, 24 November 2020

2020-11-24T15:53:15Z

Admin at 15:49, 24 November 2020

2020-11-24T15:49:03Z

Admin: Created page with " [Home] - [Forecast Models] {| class="wikitable" |- |style="background-color: orange;" |Layer name |style="background-color: orange;"|E..."

2020-11-24T15:45:29Z

Created page with " [Home] - [Forecast Models] {| class="wikitable" |- |style="background-color: orange;" |Layer name |style="background-color: orange;"|E..."

New page

[[User Guide | [Home]]] - [[Forecast Models | [Forecast Models]]]

{| class="wikitable"
|-
|style="background-color: orange;" |Layer name
|style="background-color: orange;"|ECMWF-ENS
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|Tag
|Meteorological Models
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|Folder
|
|-
|Source
|[https://www.ecmwf.int ECMWF]
|-
|Description
|The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and land-soil variables are available through this dataset, from temperatures, winds, and precipitation to soil moisture and atmospheric ozone concentration. The entire globe is covered by the GFS at a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points, which is used by the operational forecasters who predict weather out to 16 days in the future. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid point for forecasts between one week and two weeks.
The GFS model is a coupled model, composed of four separate models (an atmosphere model, an ocean model, a land/soil model, and a sea ice model), which work together to provide an accurate picture of weather conditions. Changes are regularly made to the GFS model to improve its performance and forecast accuracy. It is a constantly evolving and improving weather model. Gridded data are available for download through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). Forecast products and more information on GFS are available at the GFS home page.
Prior to January 2003, the GFS was known as the GFS Aviation (AVN) model and the GFS Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model. GFS-AVN and MRF products are a collection from NCEP's NOAAPort. Grids, domains, run frequencies, and output frequencies have changed over the years.

More info at: [https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/19749-part-v-ensemble-prediction-system ECMWF-ENS documentation on line]

|-
|Screenshot
|[[File:all_ecmwfens.JPG|1000px|thumb|centre|]]
|[[File:all_leg_ecmwfens.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|Legend]]
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|[[File:all_ecmwfens2.JPG|1000px|thumb|centre|]]
|[[File:all_leg_ecmwfens2.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|Legend]]
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|style="background-color: grey;"| Properties
|style="background-color: grey;"|
|-
|Available variables
|Rainfall, 2-metre Temperature, 10-metre wind, 2-metre relative humidity
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|Available accumulations
|3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours
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|Available interpolation algorithms
|
|-
|Available filters
|
|-
|Spatial aggregations
|NUTS2
|}

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[[User Guide | [Home]]] - [[Forecast Models | [Forecast Models]]]

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 |Screenshot
 |[[File:all_ecmwfens2.JPG|1000px|thumb|centre|]]
-|[[File:all_leg_ecmwfens2.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|Legend]]
+|[[File:all_leg_ecmwfens21.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|Legend]]
 |-
 |style="background-color: grey;"| Properties

@@ Line 17: / Line 17: @@
 |-
 |Description
-|The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and land-soil variables are available through this dataset, from temperatures, winds, and precipitation to soil moisture and atmospheric ozone concentration. The entire globe is covered by the GFS at a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points, which is used by the operational forecasters who predict weather out to 16 days in the future. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid point for forecasts between one week and two weeks.
+|For the medium-range forecasts an ensemble of 52 individual ensemble members are created twice a day. One member is at a higher spatial resolution than the other members (called the HRES at ECMWF), its initial state is the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and it uses the currently best description of the model physics.
-The GFS model is a coupled model, composed of four separate models (an atmosphere model, an ocean model, a land/soil model, and a sea ice model), which work together to provide an accurate picture of weather conditions. Changes are regularly made to the GFS model to improve its performance and forecast accuracy. It is a constantly evolving and improving weather model. Gridded data are available for download through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). Forecast products and more information on GFS are available at the GFS home page.
-Prior to January 2003, the GFS was known as the GFS Aviation (AVN) model and the GFS Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model. GFS-AVN and MRF products are a collection from NCEP's NOAAPort. Grids, domains, run frequencies, and output frequencies have changed over the years.
+The HRES provides a highly detailed description of future weather and averaged over many forecasts it is the most accurate forecast for a certain period, which is currently estimated as 10 days for large scale properties of the atmosphere. However for any particular forecast it may not be the most skilful member of the ensemble. Also when viewed in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.
 More info at: [https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/19749-part-v-ensemble-prediction-system ECMWF-ENS documentation on line]
@@ Line 38: / Line 48: @@
 |-
 |Available accumulations
-|3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours
+|Amount of accumulated rainfall over the forecast range of 10 days for the median of the ensemble ECMWF forecast; Probability [%] of exceeding 50-150-300 mm of accumulated rainfall over the forecast range of 10 days for the ensemble ECMWF forecast.
 |-
 |Available interpolation algorithms